The Difference Between Down and Out
As turnaround investors, I prefer to invest in companies that are down but not out. This is important because a lot of times, investors misunderstood the two. Often times, these two types of companies are trading near or at their 52 week low. But the similarity ends there.
<b>Company that is Down. </b>This is the company that experiences problem and it seems like it can weather the problem. It just needs time to right the ship and get back on track. How can we be certain that the company can weather the storm? The ultimate guideline is to look at the company’s balance sheet and income statement. Does the company have a positive net cash? Is the company expected to post a profit? If the answer is yes to both questions, then the company in question is most likely is just down, but not out.
<b>Company that is Out.</b> This is the company that experiences problem but its future existence might be in doubt. It might right the ship but by then it might be too late. As a result, shareholders will be wiped out and lose 100% of their investment. How can we be certain for the company that is out? Again, we have to check the ultimate guideline, which is the balance sheet and income statement of the company. Does the company have a negative net cash? Is the company expected to post a loss for the foreseeable future? If the answer is yes to both questions, then the company in question has the high probability of being out of business.
Using analogy without illustrations are confusing, in my opinion. Therefore, I will choose one company for each situation. Please do not treat this as a buy or sell recommendation. This is merely my observation as someone who had watched these companies for a while.
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) might be categorized as the company that is down. Stock price slumped to 8 year low this week due to weak sales of its drug franchises and tepid guidance. Management has refused to update guidance for 2006 and beyond due to uncertainty. So, let’s look at Pfizer’s balance sheet, shall we? The latest information on Pfizer shows that the company has $ 15 Billion of cash and equivalent and $ 5.517 Billion in long term debt. In other words, Pfizer has $9.5 Billion of positive net cash. How about earnings? Is Pfizer expected to post a loss? Nope, it is expected to post earnings of $ 1.95 per share for year 2005 or $ 14 Billion of net profit. Profit is plenty while balance sheet is solid. Pfizer clearly is a company that simply has a small bump in the road.
How about AMR Corp (AMR)? This is an excellent example of a company that is out. Looking at the balance sheet, AMR has a negative net cash of $ 9.5 Billion. What this means is that it has $ 9.5 Billion more long term debt than it has cash. Is AMR profitable? Not a chance. It is expected to post a loss of $ 4.36 per share for 2005 or $ 714 Million. It doesn’t look pretty. High amount of debt and big loss is the recipe for a company that is down. If AMR doesn’t turn its ship anytime soon, it might be forced to file bankruptcy.
To consistently make money, investors need to be able to differentiate the company that is down and company that is out. Weed out the company that is out and your investment return will be so much better.
The Art Of Trading – How To Trade During A Consolidation or Congestion Phase
When stock prices start to move within a certain range, falling to established lows and then rebounding up to established highs and fall back again, the stocks are said to be in a consolidation or congested phase.
Most of the time, typical consolidation patterns can be seen, with the most common one being the rectangle pattern or sometimes called a price “corridor” or channel.
When prices start to drop, traders get nervous and weak holders will sell their stocks so that they will fall to a support level which other traders will consider a good price to buy. From that level, stock prices will then rebound, often with volume as support comes into the stock.
As the price of the stock improves and increases, it will reach a peak where traders who have purchased the stock at lower prices will sell. At the same time, weak holders who have purchased the stock at higher prices may wish to bail out as their losses are narrowed with the improved prices. At that point in time, resistance is encountered and the stock price then tops over to form a peak.
When you connect the support prices and the peak prices where the price tops over, you will find the pattern of a channel or a rectangle.
During consolidation phases, prices trade within a range formed by the bottom of the channel or rectangle and the top of the rectangle or channel.
Technically, the use of oscillators will be suitable for trading within congestion phases. The key is to identify the bottom of the channel and to buy closer to the bottom of the channel and to sell as prices reaches the top of the channel or rectangle.
A common mistake newer traders commit is to continue to use their trend following trading system during a congested phase and encounter a lot of whipsaws as prices oscillate between a small range.
When you transit from a bullish market and moves into a bearish market, be contented with smaller gains which come from trading the congested and consolidation phases. Fall back upon oscillators to track your stock prices and trade them in relation to their location within the price rectangle pattern that you can easily identify in your stock chart,
Successful Investors Have Learned to Talk Their Walk!
Today, English is the most widely spoken and written language on the planet. English was first spoken in Britain by Germanic tribes in the Fifth Century AD. At that time it was known as the Old English (Anglo-Saxon) period. During the Middle English period (1150-1500 AD), many Old English word endings were replaced by prepositions like by, with, and from. We are currently in the Modern English period which started in the Sixteenth Century.
The number of words in English has grown from 50,000 to 60,000 words in Old English to about a million today; the largest of all languages by far. An average educated person knows about 20,000 words and uses only about 2,000 words in a week. Despite its widespread use, there are only about 350 million people who use it as their mother tongue.
It is the official language of the Olympics. More than half of the world’s technical and scientific periodicals as well three quarters of the world’s mail, and its telexes and cables are in English. About 80% of the information stored in the world’s computers (like this text) are also in English. English is transmitted to more than 100 million people everyday by 5 of the largest broadcasting companies (CBS, NBC, ABC, BBC, CBC). It seems like English will remain the most widely used language for some time.
The field of finance was pioneered by the United States of America as an extension of mercantilism. This was at a time when study of anything but economics was considered unworthy as compared to hard sciences like math, chemistry and physic and kissing up in the king’s court was highly regarded. The first business schools were established in the United States for this reason and still maintain their dominance. Finance has many words such as “put” and “call” for which there are no translations in other languages.
It is critical that you develop your financial vocabulary. My understanding of the financial vocabulary is vast compared to the average person because of my Ph.D. that I hold in the field as well as my investing experience as a futures and options trader and long term stock investor.
Many years of study at the doctoral level combined with direct practice in investments has allowed me to develop a vast financial vocabulary. This allows me to capture the essence of investment readings and conversations that the average person does not understand. Many investors fail not for lack of intelligence (I am of average intelligence) but lack of comprehension of what makes the stock market tick. This is due, in great part, to a lack of vocabulary that the common man on the street has not developed. Take the time to develop your financial vocabulary and you will excel over time as an investor!
